Markets Hold Breath as Fed Stalls, Trump Weighs Iran Response, and Gold Steady Amid Global Uncertainty

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey delivered another hit to market sentiment this week, plunging to - 16 in June - its sixth consecutive negative read - indicating ongoing contraction in business activity across New York state. Meanwhile, US retail sales fell by 0.9%, revealing continued pressure on American consumers and suggesting broader economic softness.

Despite these indicators, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, defying former President Trump’s increasingly vocal push for rapid rate cuts to stimulate the economy. The Fed’s stance reinforces its wait-and-see approach, particularly given inflation's persistence and mixed economic signals.

On the geopolitical front, Trump has signalled that a decision on potential US intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict will be made within two weeks. As regional tensions escalate, new concerns are emerging over potential nuclear fallout, with analysts warning that any major strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could lead to contamination of vital water supplies across neighbouring countries.

Amidst all this uncertainty, gold continues to hold strong, maintaining its position confidently above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The metal remains a preferred hedge as markets absorb the layered risks of geopolitical instability, economic slowdown, and monetary policy deadlock.

Market Snapshot

• Gold – $AU5198
• Silver – $AU56.29
• US500 – 5949
• ASX200 – 8509
• AUD/USD – 0.6482

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

Technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY on both monthly and weekly analyses.  

Technical Indicators - Monthly Projections  

Summary for Monthly Forecast: Strong Buy  

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