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US Tariffs Inflate GDP Expectations as Job Market Softens

The US is bracing for a sharp rise in GDP figures due out tomorrow—but the bump may be more illusion than substance. Analysts are attributing the expected increase to Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs, which have pushed up domestic production and inventory levels rather than reflecting any meaningful economic growth. We’ll have clearer detail on Friday once the official numbers drop.

Meanwhile, signs of a cooling labour market continue to emerge. The US unemployment rate has nudged up to 4.2%, echoing similar levels in Australia, where unemployment also sits at 4.2%. A mix of subdued earnings reports and increasing AI-driven efficiencies appears to be thinning job prospects, particularly in white-collar sectors.

Further underlining the shift, US job openings fell again this week. The softening demand for labour is being seen by some as a warning sign—either of a looming slowdown or a new economic normal driven by automation and reduced hiring appetite.

Gold prices remain steady but choppy, continuing to range well above their 50- and 200-day moving averages. While the precious metal has yet to make a decisive move in either direction, any escalation in macroeconomic instability or soft data could see gold swing back upward in the coming days.


Enjoy today’s charts.

US Tariffs Inflate GDP Expectations as Job Market Softens Insights
US Tariffs Inflate GDP Expectations as Job Market Softens Insights
US Tariffs Inflate GDP Expectations as Job Market Softens Insights
US Tariffs Inflate GDP Expectations as Job Market Softens Insights
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