US GDP results inbound. Gold and Silver rebound

US GDP figures are due out later tonight, with quarterly growth expected to land around 2.5%. If that number holds, it would reinforce the narrative that the US economy remains surprisingly resilient despite higher interest rates over the past two years. Markets will be watching closely – not just for the headline number, but for revisions, consumer spending strength and any signs that growth is cooling faster than anticipated.

What’s becoming more interesting is how disconnected Australia now appears from the US cycle. Historically, movements from the Federal Reserve flowed through global markets and Australia often mirrored the direction in both economic momentum and monetary policy. That relationship now looks fractured. The US is increasingly discussing the timing and scale of potential rate cuts, with stimulus measures quietly creeping back into market expectations. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to hold a tightening bias, determined to keep inflation contained even at the expense of household balance sheets.

This divergence matters. When two major Western economies move in opposite monetary directions, currency pressure follows. A US rate cutting cycle would normally weaken the USD, yet Australia’s structural fiscal position complicates things. National debt continues its upward march, now approaching the $1 trillion mark, while productivity growth remains subdued. Higher rates domestically may support the AUD in the short term, but longer-term debt expansion creates a different kind of pressure.

Against that backdrop, gold and silver have quietly regained some upward momentum. Both metals ticked higher overnight, reinforcing that investor appetite remains present. Importantly from a technical standpoint, gold is still trading comfortably above its 50-day moving averages (Silver lagging just a little). That tells us underlying trend support remains intact despite recent volatility.

There is also a behavioural component at play. When monetary policy becomes inconsistent across major economies and fiscal balances deteriorate, capital looks for neutral ground. Precious metals often benefit in these environments – not necessarily through panic buying, but through steady portfolio allocation shifts. The recent lift suggests buyers are still stepping in on dips rather than exiting positions.

Silver in particular continues to show strength relative to broader market uncertainty. Its dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal gives it sensitivity to growth expectations, so tonight’s US GDP print could influence short-term direction. A strong number may boost industrial sentiment, while a weaker result could increase rate-cut expectations – either way, volatility is likely.

For now, the technical picture remains constructive. Both metals are holding their trend lines, momentum indicators remain healthy, and buying pressure continues to absorb selling quickly. The bigger question is whether this divergence between Australia and the US becomes structural rather than temporary.

Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Enjoy today’s charts.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

Technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY on both monthly and weekly analyses.  

Technical Indicators – Monthly Projections  

Gold daily chart, with 50MDA

Silver daily chart, with 50MDA

US500, with 50MDA

ASX200, with 50MDA