Silver continues Zooming while PPI flashes amber

Silver has pushed to yet another all-time high, now trading around AUD 138 per ounce, and the momentum behind the move continues to surprise even seasoned precious metals investors. What’s notable about this rally isn’t just the headline price, but the scale of the gains over a relatively short period. Around this time last year, silver in Australian dollar terms was trading closer to the mid-AUD 40s to low-AUD 50s range. At today’s levels, that puts the one-year return in the vicinity of 170–200%, depending on exact entry point and dealer pricing. In simple terms, a holding of physical silver over the past 12 months has roughly tripled in value. Moves of that magnitude are rare for any asset class, let alone one often considered a conservative store of value.

While silver continues to grab attention, broader US economic data has added an interesting layer to the market backdrop. US retail sales surprised to the upside, showing a solid improvement despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures. Consumers, at least at the headline level, are still spending. This resilience suggests that higher interest rates and inflation fatigue have not yet fully broken demand, particularly among higher-income households. However, beneath the surface, the picture remains uneven, with discretionary spending increasingly concentrated among those least affected by rising costs.

At the same time, inflation signals upstream are starting to flash amber. The US Producer Price Index has moved back into the 3–4% year-on-year range, a level that will be uncomfortable for policymakers if it persists. PPI is often a leading indicator, and sustained increases at the producer level tend to find their way into consumer prices with a lag. If these cost pressures continue to flow through supply chains, it raises the risk of renewed upside surprises in CPI over the coming months.

For markets, this combination is potent. Strong retail sales reduce the urgency for aggressive rate cuts, while firmer producer inflation complicates the outlook for central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Against that backdrop, precious metals continue to benefit from uncertainty around inflation, real rates, and currency purchasing power. Silver’s outsized move reflects not just safe-haven demand, but also its dual role as both a monetary metal and an industrial input, amplifying interest when inflation risks resurface.

For now, silver remains firmly in the spotlight, retail spending is holding up better than many expected, and inflation pressures are proving harder to fully extinguish. It’s a mix that continues to underpin interest in hard assets, even as traditional economic indicators send mixed signals.

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Enjoy today’s charts.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

Technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY on both monthly and weekly analyses.  

Technical Indicators – Monthly Projections  

Gold daily chart, with 50MDA

Silver daily chart, with 50MDA

US500, with 50MDA

ASX200, with 50MDA

Thanks for reading – and always do your own research before making any investment decisions.