Retail sales underperform as US jobs show weakness

US employment data came in softer again, with ADP reporting that the economy shed another 32,000 jobs in November. That marks the third contraction in four months and adds to a growing narrative that the labour market is losing momentum. Pair that with slumping Black Friday sales, and it’s no surprise consumer confidence has slipped to a seven-month low.

With Christmas retail already underway, all eyes turn to how quickly the Federal Reserve might need to pivot. If confidence keeps unravelling and holiday spending underperforms, rate-cut expectations for early 2026 could accelerate.

Precious metals remain one of the few bright spots. Gold continues to trade comfortably above its moving average, not giving back much of the recent strength. Silver, while dipping slightly yesterday, is still sitting well above its own trend line and continues to outperform on momentum signals.

Back home, the RBA is edging toward a more hawkish stance. There’s chatter about further tightening next year if inflation refuses to cool, and banks appear to be positioning early — exploring higher term-deposit rates to draw in customers ahead of any move.

Another interesting split between US softness and Australian stubbornness, and metals are benefitting from the uncertainty on both sides of the Pacific.

Thanks for reading – and always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Enjoy today’s charts.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

Technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY on both monthly and weekly analyses.  

Technical Indicators – Monthly Projections  

Gold daily chart, with 50MDA

Silver daily chart, with 50MDA

US500, with 50MDA

ASX200, with 50MDA