Peace Hopes, Weak GDP and the Next Big Move for Gold and Silver

Gold and silver continue to hover near a critical point technically, with both metals appearing poised for a stronger directional move over the coming weeks. Gold has spent much of the month consolidating after a volatile period driven by inflation fears, war concerns and energy instability, while silver has quietly continued building strength underneath the surface. Traders are now watching closely to see whether renewed geopolitical optimism or weaker economic data becomes the catalyst that finally pushes bullion higher again.

Markets were given a dose of optimism overnight after reports emerged that the proposed US-Iran memorandum of understanding is now reportedly sitting on Donald Trump’s desk awaiting final signature. The proposed deal would introduce a 60-day peace framework and could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, a move that would likely ease pressure on global oil pricing and shipping costs. Oil markets have already reacted positively to the possibility of the route reopening, with traders attempting to price in a more stable energy environment. 

The challenge for investors now becomes working out what this means for risk assets. On one hand, a successful agreement between Iran and the US could remove a major global uncertainty, potentially sending sharemarkets sharply higher again as confidence returns. On the other hand, recent US GDP data has reminded everyone that the economy is still slowing underneath the surface. US GDP growth was revised lower to 1.6%, missing expectations and coming in softer than earlier estimates. Consumer spending also weakened during the quarter, raising questions about how resilient the US economy really is moving forward. 

This leaves markets in an interesting position. The US sharemarket has rallied aggressively throughout periods of conflict and uncertainty, largely driven by AI investment, technology optimism and investor appetite for growth. Some analysts now argue valuations are becoming stretched, particularly if economic growth continues slowing while inflation remains elevated. Others believe that if a Hormuz agreement is finalised and oil pricing stabilises, markets may simply take another leg higher as recession fears ease. 

For bullion investors, this creates a fascinating backdrop. If peace genuinely holds and energy pricing softens, gold could temporarily lose some of its fear-driven momentum. But if GDP continues weakening while inflation remains sticky, precious metals may still find strong support as investors look for protection against economic instability and currency weakness. At the moment, gold and silver appear less interested in panic, and more interested in patiently waiting for the next major macro signal.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

Technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY on monthly analysis.  

Technical Indicators – Monthly Projections

Enjoy today’s charts 

Gold daily chart, with 50MDA

Silver daily chart, with 50MDA

US500, with 50MDA

ASX200, with 50MDA