Labour data uneasy as rate rises on the cards

US labour data continues to cool, with job openings falling sharply from 7.6 million to 7.1 million. That half-million drop matters. It reinforces the idea that US businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring as higher interest rates and softer demand start to bite. While the labour market is still holding together, the direction of travel is now clearly downward rather than flat.

Factory data tells a similar story. US factory orders fell another 1.3%, extending what has become a persistent downtrend. Manufacturing has been under pressure for some time, and this latest reading suggests there’s little sign of a near-term turnaround. Weak orders usually flow through to lower production, fewer hours worked, and eventually employment softness — which is why markets are watching these numbers so closely.

Back home, the message from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the major banks remains firm: interest rates may need to stay higher for longer, and potentially rise again through 2026. For Australian households already dealing with elevated mortgages, rent stress and cost-of-living pressure, this is a difficult outlook. The challenge is that inflation has proven stubborn, even as parts of the economy slow, leaving policymakers with very few comfortable options.

Unemployment figures highlight just how tight this balancing act has become. Australia’s jobless rate sits at 4.4%, while the US is marginally higher at 4.5%. These are not recession-level numbers, but they are trending in the wrong direction. Governments and central banks are increasingly torn between stimulating growth to protect jobs and maintaining restrictive policy to bring inflation under control. History suggests they rarely get this balance perfect.

Against this backdrop, gold and silver continue to outperform. In an environment where growth is slowing, policy uncertainty is rising, and households are feeling the squeeze, precious metals are once again doing what they’ve done for centuries — acting as a hedge against economic and monetary stress. While equity markets wrestle with earnings risk and rate expectations, bullion continues to attract steady interest from investors looking for something less exposed to policy missteps.

For now, the macro picture remains uneasy. Softer US data, firm central bank rhetoric, and resilient precious metals all point to an economy navigating a narrow path — and one where volatility is unlikely to disappear any time soon.

Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Enjoy today’s charts.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

Technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY on both monthly and weekly analyses.  

Technical Indicators – Monthly Projections  

Gold daily chart, with 50MDA

Silver daily chart, with 50MDA

US500, with 50MDA

ASX200, with 50MDA

Thanks for reading – and always do your own research before making any investment decisions.