Gold Dips, Surplus Surprises, and the Inflation Disconnect

Gold’s momentum took a hit this week, dropping over 5.5% since last Friday. Spot pricing fell to around $3,137 USD per ounce, dragged lower by easing global tensions, renewed confidence in the US economy, and a stronger US dollar. After a stellar few weeks, traders seem to be rotating into risk assets, trimming their gold exposure for now.

In a rare move, the US Government has posted a budget surplus for April—coming in at $258 billion. That’s a 23% increase from the same time last year. A surge in tax receipts helped, but the real standout was record customs revenue, with $16 billion collected from imports. Some of that surge relates to an unusual influx of gold.

Yes, gold. The US has imported so much recently that the Atlanta Fed has now revised how it models GDP, after the trade deficit ballooned. In early 2025, monthly gold imports reached an average of $29.1 billion. While the raw metal often bypasses consumption metrics, its sheer scale distorted trade and GDP signals enough to force an adjustment.

Meanwhile, inflation data continues to paint a pretty picture—headline CPI has cooled to 2.3% in the US, its lowest level since early 2021. But many consumers aren’t seeing that relief at the checkout. Grocery bills remain high, with food inflation sitting around 2.8% year-on-year. Specialist labour costs have also stayed elevated, keeping construction, repairs, and personal services expensive. For many, the numbers say inflation is under control—but the lived experience tells another story.

Market Snapshot

• Gold – $AU5065
• Silver – $AU51.53
• US500 – 5911
• ASX200 – 8374
• AUD/USD – 0.64

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

Technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY for monthly analysis and a BUY for weekly analysis.  

Technical Indicators – Monthly Projections  

Summary for Monthly Forecast: Strong Buy