Gold Price AUD $6598.71

Silver Price AUD: $107.48

Platinum Price AUD: $2849.43

Gold and silver have edged back just as they approached their 50-day moving averages. The move higher over the past couple of weeks has started to lose a bit of momentum, with prices drifting rather than pushing through. Gold is holding up reasonably well, while silver has given back more ground, which usually reflects a bit of uncertainty creeping in. At this stage, it still looks like a pause after a strong run, but the market is clearly waiting for something to drive the next move.

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is nearing its end, and neither side appears particularly interested in de-escalating. Military positioning has continued across the region, particularly around key shipping lanes, and oil markets are already starting to factor that risk back in. If tensions escalate again, energy prices are likely to respond quickly, and that tends to flow through into inflation without much delay.

That creates a difficult balancing act for the Federal Reserve. The US President has been vocal about wanting rate cuts, but the Fed is signalling a more cautious approach. Inflation hasn’t eased enough to justify a shift in policy, and the risk of higher energy prices only adds to the hesitation. At the same time, parts of the US economy are still showing resilience, which gives policymakers room to wait, even if markets are pushing for earlier action.

Back in Australia, there’s been a bit of relief at the petrol pump, with prices easing slightly in recent days. It’s a welcome shift, but one that may not hold for long. Australia remains closely tied to global fuel supply, and any disruption offshore tends to show up locally fairly quickly. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, those lower prices could reverse just as fast.

For now, markets are in a holding pattern. Precious metals are sitting just below a key technical level, energy markets are on edge, and central banks are watching closely. The next move will likely depend on how these pieces come together and whether the current pause turns into something more decisive.

Enjoy today’s charts

Gold daily chart, with 50MDA