GDP, oil and tax pressure keep markets on edge

US GDP data is looming, and markets are watching closely. If the number comes in strong, it gives the Federal Reserve more room to hold rates higher, or even push further if inflation stays stubborn. That kind of outcome doesn’t stay contained to the US. Australia tends to feel the flow-on effects through imported inflation, currency pressure and global sentiment. The RBA may not mirror the Fed move for move, but it rarely gets to ignore it either.

At the same time, the Iran conflict continues to hang over energy markets. Any real progress toward reopening normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still feels unlikely for now. That keeps oil supply tight and unpredictable. The knock-on effects are already well understood. Fuel costs rise first, then freight, then manufacturing inputs. Plastics, fertilisers, packaging, it all starts to edge higher when oil becomes harder to move. It’s not just about availability, it’s about cost and timing, and both are under pressure.

Back home, Australia is clearly searching for answers ahead of the next budget. There’s a growing mix of ideas being floated, from encouraging downsizing to free up housing stock, through to potential changes in gas taxation, capital gains tax and negative gearing. Some of it is framed as affordability reform, some of it is simply about revenue. Either way, it points in one direction. The tax burden is unlikely to ease any time soon.

Gold and silver are holding steady through all of this, but still sitting below their 50-day moving averages. That keeps them in a bit of a holding pattern. They’re not selling off, but they’re not yet showing the strength needed to push higher with conviction. With GDP data about to land and energy markets still under strain, the next move may not be far away.

Enjoy today’s charts

Gold daily chart, with 50MDA

Silver daily chart, with 50MDA

US500, with 50MDA

ASX200, with 50MDA

Auhtor

Hercules Tsoutsas

With deep expertise in gold, silver, and commodities markets, Hercules has spent years helping investors navigate the ever-changing landscape of precious metals, from market movements and trends to smart buying decisions.