Recession indicators still firing, but market shows continued resilience

 24 January, 2024
 As at 9am, AEST.

Gold Spot Price $AU3088

Silver Spot Price $AU34.23

Platinum Spot Price $AU1389


Recession indicators still firing, but market shows continued resilience. 


While economic indicators continue to whisper that a recession is around the corner, sharemarkets are showing strength, with the US500 hitting new all time highs over the past week, while still maintaining an RSI of 70 (Currently not overbought). 


This coming Thursday, we’ll have more data from US GDP, Jobless claims and New Homes - which should give us a pretty good reference point for decisions around rate cuts this year.  US leading economic indicator continues to flash red, though this indicator has been firing for so long over the past year that many economists and investors are simply ignoring it. While this technique seems to be paying off for investors, this indicator could well be the story of the ‘boy that cried wolf’. As an indicator that takes a holistic view of the US economy, it might prudent to pay attention to it.


Gold continues its consolidation around US$2020-2030 per ounce and could well respond positively to either good or bad news from the FED in the coming weeks. Brilliantly, Gold can move up in the face of inflation and also move up in the face of crisis. 


In Australia, it seems we’re still unable to get our ‘cost of living’ crisis under control. Our Prime Minister has returned from Christmas leave ready to tackle this issue. We’d argue that the damage is done, as many Aussies had to suffer a quieter than normal Christmas or simply pay excessively for accommodation, fuel and trying to relax over the holiday period. 


As Western Countries continue to move towards rate cuts through this year, we’re left pondering if inflation really is under control, or if we’re simply lowering rates to avoid an economic catastrophe.


Enjoy today’s charts.



Gold daily, with 200MDA


Silver daily, with 200MDA




US500, with 200MDA




ASX200, with 200MDA