Markets Wobble as Trump Eyes Powell, US Tourism Sinks, and Global Tensions Rise

Donald Trump has hinted he may attempt to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if re-elected, reigniting debate about the independence of America’s central bank. While a sitting president cannot directly fire the Fed Chair without cause, legal interpretations remain murky, and Trump has previously expressed frustration over Powell’s handling of interest rates during his presidency. Markets are watching closely, as any signal of interference in Fed policy could undermine investor confidence and rattle the US dollar.

Adding to investor unease, the S&P 500 has seen a volatile three-week stretch, marked by sharp intraday swings and an overall downward drift. After reaching a short-term peak in late March, the index has since dropped around 4%, with tech and consumer discretionary sectors leading the losses. Analysts attribute the pullback to sticky inflation, rate-cut uncertainty, and geopolitical noise.

Meanwhile, America’s tourism industry is facing a steep decline. International arrivals have dropped sharply, especially from key markets like China and Europe. Analysts attribute this to a mix of rising global airfares, perceptions of increasing domestic instability, and lengthy visa processing times. The slowdown is rippling through hospitality, transport, and retail sectors, hitting revenues just as broader economic momentum shows signs of fatigue.

On the global stage, China has launched a fresh rhetorical campaign asserting that the United States has consistently misunderstood or misrepresented the dynamics of their decades-long trade relationship. In recent state media briefings and diplomatic communiqués, China has accused the US of benefiting disproportionately from low-cost manufacturing while stifling tech growth through sanctions and restrictions. The message is clear: China sees itself as the more consistent and cooperative player in the trade dialogue and is re-framing the narrative ahead of new WTO discussions.

Back home, Australia is entering political heat as federal elections loom closer. With cost-of-living pressures intensifying and housing affordability still under scrutiny, swing voters may hold the key to the outcome. While Labor maintains a lead in recent polling, the margin is tightening. The Coalition is banking on energy policy and immigration control to regain momentum, but the electorate appears fragmented. Minor parties and independents could again play a significant role, particularly in outer suburban and regional electorates where dissatisfaction with both major parties is growing.

Enjoy today’s charts.

Gold daily chart, with 200MDA

Silver daily chart, with 200MDA

US500, with 200MDA

ASX200, with 200MDA